Screening for diminished ovarian reserve in Portugal: a cost-saving answer to shorten the fertility journey.

Aim: Assess the budget impact of nationwide screening for diminished ovarian reserve (OR), via anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) levels, to the Portugal National Health System (NHS). Patients & methods: The clinical journey was determined using literature and the family planning decision-making process/response using survey results. A panel of four local clinicians validated all assumptions/inputs. Results: Screening for OR led to an expected savings of € 9.4 million for the NHS, driven by a 24% reduction in medically assisted reproduction (MAR) use. When needed, referral for MAR was earlier and more women used first-line versus second-line techniques. The model estimated a 12% decrease in failure. Conclusion: This model shows AMH screening may allow more informed decisions, leading to a shorter fertility journey, more efficient use of treatments, and substantial cost-savings for the NHS.

Cost-effectiveness of acalabrutinib regimens in treatment-naïve chronic lymphocytic leukemia in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Clinical outcomes in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) have improved with targeted therapy, including Bruton tyrosine kinase inhibitors such as acalabrutinib. METHODS: A semi-Markov model with three health states (progression-free, progressed disease, and death) estimated cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained for acalabrutinib ± obinutuzumab vs chlorambucil + obinutuzumab in treatment-naive CLL (based on ELEVATE-TN). The model used direct costs and resource utilization from the US Medicare perspective and utility values sourced from literature. Sensitivity analyses tested the robustness of the model. RESULTS: Over a 30-year lifetime horizon, the model base case analysis suggested that acalabrutinib monotherapy had an incremental cost of $206,329 and 2.52 QALYs gained versus chlorambucil + obinutuzumab, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $81,960/QALY. Acalabrutinib + obinutuzumab had an incremental cost of $423,747 and 2.79 QALYs gained (ICER: $152,153/QALY). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed the probability of acalabrutinib monotherapy being cost-effective as 59% to 73% at a $100,000-to-150,000/QALY willingness-to-pay threshold; the probability of acalabrutinib + obinutuzumab being cost-effective ranged from 34% to 51%. CONCLUSIONS: Although the analysis is limited by uncertainty in postprogression survival outcomes, acalabrutinib monotherapy is likely cost-effective vs chlorambucil + obinutuzumab in treatment-naive CLL in the US Medicare setting.

NT-proBNP for heart failure diagnosis in Primary Care: Costs or savings? A budget impact study.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Chronic heart failure (CHF) is a growing public health concern and diagnosis can be challenging, particularly in primary care. This study aims to estimate the budgetary impact of introducing N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) for CHF diagnosis in a primary care setting from the perspective of the Portuguese health system. METHODS: A budget impact analysis was conducted over one-year from the patients' first presentation. The standard of care (SoC) was compared to NT-proBNP at the point-of-care (PoC) or laboratory (Lab). A decision tree model was used to estimate the downstream costs associated with each of the three pathways. RESULTS: An estimated 81 012 patients were expected to present to primary care with new onset CHF symptoms. The use of NT-proBNP as a primary diagnostic tool is estimated to generate annualized savings of EUR 935 657 and EUR 2 982 443 in the Lab and PoC setting, respectively. Estimated cost savings were due to the need for fewer medical visits, hospitalizations and echocardiograms (ECHO). The Lab and PoC settings led to similar reductions in hospitalizations (14.4%) and ECHO (27%), but the reduction in medical visits was higher in the PoC setting (38% compared to 2.5%), resulting in higher savings compared to Lab. CONCLUSIONS: Using NT-proBNP for CHF diagnosis in primary care could result in considerable costs savings for the public health system in Portugal. This evidence might support health policy makers to reconsider the resource management and define a new strategy to mitigate the impact of CHF.

Cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccination in Brazil / Custo-efetividade da vacinação contra dengue no Brasil

Objective: To define the economic value of a tetravalent dengue vaccine in Brazil by estimating the cost-effectiveness vaccine price threshold per dose. Methods: A dengue dynamic transmission model was used to estimate the public health impact of dengue vaccination and related economic parameters. Two vaccination strategies were assessed: routine vaccination at 9 years old plus either a catch-up campaign of 7 cohorts (10 to 16 years old; R9&10-16) or 16 cohorts (10 to 25 years old; R9&10-25). Brazilian-specific demographic, epidemiological and economic data were used. The economic impact over 10 years was estimated from the public payer and societal perspectives. All costs were expressed in BRL2016. Results: Over 10 years, the R9&10-16 and R9&10-25 vaccination strategies would prevent 9 million and 15 million dengue cases, respectively, avoiding 269,906 (95% CI: 410,097­154,653) and 434,334 (95% CI: 547,052­304,799) disability-adjusted life years. This would result in savings of up to BRL7.4 billion (US$2.1 billion) from a societal perspective with the larger vaccination program. The cost-effective vaccine price threshold per dose for the R9&10-16 and R9&10-25 strategies would be BRL187.5 (95% CI: 109­276) (US$52.1) and BRL183.6 (95% CI: 129­230) (US$51.0), respectively, from the public payer perspective, and BRL221.5 (95% CI: 129­326) (US$61.5) and BRL216.8 (95% CI: 153­271) (US$60.2), respectively, from the societal perspective. Conclusion: The high threshold of vaccine price per dose demonstrates the significant economic value of dengue vaccination in Brazil, even for a large program with 16 catch-up cohorts.

Objetivo: Definir o valor econômico da vacina tetravalente contra dengue no Brasil por meio da estimativa do limiar de preço custo-efetivo por dose. Métodos: Um modelo dinâmico de transmissão foi utilizado para estimar o impacto em saúde pública da vacinação contra dengue e os parâmetros econômicos relacionados. A análise avaliou duas estratégias de vacinação: rotina aos 9 anos, mais campanha de vacinação com 7 coortes (10 a 16 anos; R9&10-16) ou 16 coortes (10 a 25 anos; R9&10-25). Foram utilizados dados demográficos, epidemiológicos e econômicos específicos para o Brasil. O impacto econômico foi estimado em 10 anos sob a perspectiva do pagador público e da sociedade. Todos os custos foram expressos em BRL2016. Resultados: Em 10 anos, as estratégias de vacinação R9&10-16 e R9&10-25 preveniriam 9 milhões e 15 milhões de casos de dengue, respectivamente, evitando 269,906 (95% CI: 410,097­154,653) e 434,334 (95% CI: 547,052­304,799) anos de vida ajustados por incapacidade. Isso resultaria em uma economia de até BRL7,4 bilhões (US$2,1 bilhões) sob a perspectiva da sociedade com o maior programa de vacinação. O limiar de preço custo-efetivo por dose para as estratégias R9&10-16 e R9&10-25 seria BRL187,5 (95% CI: 109­276) (US$52,1) e BRL183,6 (95% CI: 129­230) (US$51,0), respectivamente, sob a perspectiva do público pagador, e BRL221,5 (95% CI: 129­326) (US$61,5) e BRL216,8 (95% CI: 153­271) (US$60,2), respectivamente, sob a perspectiva da sociedade. Conclusão: Os altos limiares de preço custo-efetivo por dose demonstram o significativo valor econômico da vacinação contra dengue no Brasil, mesmo para um programa amplo com campanha com 16 coortes.

Estimation of the potential impact of dengue vaccination on clinical outcomes in Brazil / Estimativa do impacto potencial com a vacinação contra dengue nos desfechos clínicos no Brasil

Objective: The aim of the current analysis was to measure the public health impact of dengue vaccination in Brazil using a published transmission dynamics model. Methods: We adapted a mathematical model that represented the transmission dynamics of the four dengue fever serotypes in humans and in the mosquito. This compartmental model represents the known characteristics of dengue transmission dynamics: host-vector interactions, immunological interactions between all four dengue serotypes, age structure of the population, levels of specific transmission by age, seasonality of the disease, and growth of the human and vector population. Results: Our mathematical model showed a 22% (CI95%: 9-37) reduction of all cases of dengue fever for a smaller scenario (routine vaccination at 9 years old and catch-up campaign to 10 years of age) and 81% (CI95%: 67-89) in the largest scenario (routine vaccination at 9 years old and catch-up campaign to 40 years of age) over a 5-year period. For the 10-year impact, we estimated a 22% (CI95%: 12-39) reduction in the smaller scenario,and a 92% (CI95%: 80-95) reduction in the larger scenario. This reduction in the number of cases would lead to significant decrease in the number of hospitalizations. Up to 233,509 (CI95%: 148,534 - 331,849) and 739,378 (CI95%: 604,386 ? 894,072) hospitalizations would be prevented over a 5-year and 10-year period, respectively, with the larger vaccination program. Conclusion: This analysis indicates that, within expected variations, a national dengue vaccination program in Brazil would lead to significant public health benefits by reducing dengue infections and hospitalizations.

Objetivo: O objetivo da análise é medir o impacto na saúde pública com vacinação da dengue no Brasil, utilizando um modelo dinâmico de transmissão publicado. Método: Adaptamos modelo matemático que representa a dinâmica de transmissão dos quatro sorotipos da dengue em humanos e no mosquito. O modelo é determinístico, compartimental, para representar as características conhecidas da dinâmica de transmissão da dengue: interações hospedeiro-vetor; interações imunológicas entre os quatro sorotipos de dengue; estrutura etária da população; níveis de transmissão específicas por idade; sazonalidade da doença e o crescimento da população de humanos e vetores. Resultado: Nosso modelo matemático estimou em 22% (IC95%: 9-37) de redução dos casos de dengue para o cenário mais conservador (rotina aos 9 anos e campanha de vacinação até 10 anos) e 81% (IC95%: 67-89) no cenário mais liberal (rotina aos 9 anos e campanha de vacinação até 40 anos) ao longo de 5 anos. Para o impacto de 10 anos, estimou-se 22% (IC95%: 12-39) de redução no cenário de mais conservador e 92% (IC95%: 80-95) de redução no cenário mais liberal. Esta redução dos casos leva a redução significativa do número de hospitalizações. Até 233,509 (CI95%: 148,534 - 331,849) e 739,378 (CI95%: 604,386 ? 894,072) internações poderiam ser salvas em 5 e 10 anos, respectivamente para período com o programa mais liberal de vacinação. Conclusão: A análise indica que, dentro de variações esperadas, um programa de vacinação nacional contra dengue no Brasil teria um benefício significativo para saúde pública, reduzindo infecções e internações de dengue.